العلاقة بين التضخم الزمني والتضخم المالي في مشاريع الطرق والجسور في العراق: تحليل تجريب

محتوى المقالة الرئيسي

Zainab Saad Falih
Kadhim Raheim Erzaij

الملخص

تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى فحص العلاقة التجريبية بين تضخم الوقت (TI)، والذي يُعرَّف على أنه نسبة الزيادة في مدة تنفيذ المشروع مقارنةً بالجدول الزمني الأصلي، وتضخم الكلفة المالية (FI)، والذي يُعرَّف على أنه نسبة الزيادة في كلفة المشروع مقارنةً بالميزانية الأصلية، وذلك في مشاريع الطرق والجسور في العراق. تتمثل المشكلة التي تسعى الدراسة إلى معالجتها في تصاعد كلف المشاريع المرتبط بتأخر التنفيذ، مع هدف كمي يتمثل في تحديد طبيعة هذه العلاقة بما يدعم تخطيط المشاريع وإدارة المخاطر. اعتمدت الدراسة المنهج الكمي، حيث تم تحليل بيانات 18 مشروعًا منجزًا باستخدام الإحصاءات الوصفية، ومعامل ارتباط سبيرمان للرتب (ρ)، وتحليل الانحدار الخطي البسيط. أظهرت النتائج وجود علاقة رتيبة موجبة قوية جدًا بين التضخم الزمني والتضخم المالي (ρ = 0.743، p < 0.01). كما بيّن تحليل الانحدار أن متغير تضخم الوقت يفسّر نحو 32.9% من التباين في متغير تضخم الكلفة (R² = 0.329)، وأن زيادة مقدارها 1% في تضخم الوقت تؤدي، في المتوسط، إلى زيادة قدرها 0.556% في تضخم الكلفة. وتخلص الدراسة إلى أنه على الرغم من أن تمديد المدد الزمنية يُعد سببًا رئيسيًا لتجاوزات الكلفة في مشاريع الطرق والجسور في العراق، فإن هناك عوامل أخرى ذات تأثير ملحوظ على النتائج المالية للمشاريع. وتؤكد هذه النتائج على أهمية التحكم الاستباقي في الجداول الزمنية بوصفه استراتيجية أساسية للسيطرة على الكلفة، كما تشير إلى ضرورة تحسين الأطر التعاقدية وأنظمة المتابعة والرقابة للحد من الآثار المالية الناجمة عن التأخيرات

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تفاصيل المقالة

القسم

Articles

كيفية الاقتباس

"العلاقة بين التضخم الزمني والتضخم المالي في مشاريع الطرق والجسور في العراق: تحليل تجريب" (2026) مجلة الهندسة, 32(4), ص 218–235. doi:10.31026/j.eng.2026.04.12.

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