العلاقة بين التضخم الزمني والتضخم المالي في مشاريع الطرق والجسور في العراق: تحليل تجريب
محتوى المقالة الرئيسي
الملخص
تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى فحص العلاقة التجريبية بين تضخم الوقت (TI)، والذي يُعرَّف على أنه نسبة الزيادة في مدة تنفيذ المشروع مقارنةً بالجدول الزمني الأصلي، وتضخم الكلفة المالية (FI)، والذي يُعرَّف على أنه نسبة الزيادة في كلفة المشروع مقارنةً بالميزانية الأصلية، وذلك في مشاريع الطرق والجسور في العراق. تتمثل المشكلة التي تسعى الدراسة إلى معالجتها في تصاعد كلف المشاريع المرتبط بتأخر التنفيذ، مع هدف كمي يتمثل في تحديد طبيعة هذه العلاقة بما يدعم تخطيط المشاريع وإدارة المخاطر. اعتمدت الدراسة المنهج الكمي، حيث تم تحليل بيانات 18 مشروعًا منجزًا باستخدام الإحصاءات الوصفية، ومعامل ارتباط سبيرمان للرتب (ρ)، وتحليل الانحدار الخطي البسيط. أظهرت النتائج وجود علاقة رتيبة موجبة قوية جدًا بين التضخم الزمني والتضخم المالي (ρ = 0.743، p < 0.01). كما بيّن تحليل الانحدار أن متغير تضخم الوقت يفسّر نحو 32.9% من التباين في متغير تضخم الكلفة (R² = 0.329)، وأن زيادة مقدارها 1% في تضخم الوقت تؤدي، في المتوسط، إلى زيادة قدرها 0.556% في تضخم الكلفة. وتخلص الدراسة إلى أنه على الرغم من أن تمديد المدد الزمنية يُعد سببًا رئيسيًا لتجاوزات الكلفة في مشاريع الطرق والجسور في العراق، فإن هناك عوامل أخرى ذات تأثير ملحوظ على النتائج المالية للمشاريع. وتؤكد هذه النتائج على أهمية التحكم الاستباقي في الجداول الزمنية بوصفه استراتيجية أساسية للسيطرة على الكلفة، كما تشير إلى ضرورة تحسين الأطر التعاقدية وأنظمة المتابعة والرقابة للحد من الآثار المالية الناجمة عن التأخيرات
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.displayStats.downloads##
تفاصيل المقالة
القسم
كيفية الاقتباس
المراجع
Afzal, F., Yunfei, S., Sajid, M., and Afzal, F., 2019. Integrated priority decision index for risk assessment in chaos: cost overruns in transport projects. Engineering Construction & Architectural Management, 27(4), pp. 825–849. https://doi.org/10.1108/ecam-02-2019-0079
Al Haj, R.A. and El-Sayegh, S.M., 2015. Time–cost optimization model considering float-consumption impact. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(5). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000966
Al-Hazim, N. and Abusalem, Z., 2015. Delay and cost overrun in road construction projects in Jordan. International Journal of Engineering and Technology, 4(2), P. 288. https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v4i2.4409
Antoniou, F., 2021. Delay risk assessment models for road projects. Systems, 9(3), P. 70. https://doi.org/10.3390/systems9030070
Aryal, B. and Dhakal, B., 2022. Analysis of extension of Time Impact on project’s performance: A case study of projects in Hupsekot rural Municipality. South Asian Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, 4(5), pp. 86–99.https://doi.org/10.36346/sarjet.2022.v04i05.002
Belay, S.M., Tilahun, S., Yehualaw, M., Matos, J., Sousa, H., and Workneh, E.T., 2021. Analysis of cost overrun and schedule delays of infrastructure projects in low-income economies: case studies in Ethiopia. Advances in Civil Engineering, 2021(1).https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/4991204
Bhargava, A., Anastasopoulos, P. Ch., Labi, S., Sinha, K.C. and Mannering, F.L., 2010. Three-Stage Least-Squares analysis of time and cost overruns in construction contracts. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 136(11), pp. 1207–1218. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000225
Bordat, C., McCullouch, B. and Sinha, K., 2004. An analysis of cost overruns and time delays of INDOT projects. West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University. https://doi.org/10.5703/1288284313134
Canesi, R. and Gallo, B., 2023. Risk assessment in sustainable infrastructure development projects: A tool for mitigating cost overruns. Land, 13(1), P. 41. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13010041
Chammout, B., El-Adaway, I.H., Nabi, M.A. and Assaad, R.H., 2024. Price escalation in construction projects: Examining national and international contracts. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 150(9). https://doi.org/10.1061/jcemd4.coeng-13918
Elkliny, A., Sanad, H., and Etman, E., 2025. GA-driven MCDM model for time–cost–quality–resource trade-off in construction projects. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, pp. 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1108/ecam-06-2025-1046
Ferri, M.G. and Kama, C.A.N., 2022. The management of delay and acceleration in projects: An analysis based on artificial neural networks. MSc Thesis. Milano: Politecnico di Milano. https://www.politesi.polimi.it/handle/10589/212714
Gebrehiwet, T. and Luo, H., 2017. Analysis of delay impact on construction project based on RII and correlation coefficient: empirical study. Procedia Engineering, 196, pp. 366–374. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2017.07.212
Ghosh, D.P., 2025. Intelligent infrastructure delivery: AI-driven solutions for lifecycle design and engineering management. [Book]. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.28063.68003
Hoces-Antesana, K.S. and Guerrero-Villa, C.D., 2024. Implementing Lean Six Sigma to enhance operational efficiency and reduce waste in essential food storage SMEs: A case study. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management. IEOM Society International. https://doi.org/10.46254/wc01.20240026
Jastino, R. and Indrastuti, 2024. Analyzing construction risk factors in large-scale projects: Case study on the Suramadu Bridge. LEADER: Civil Engineering and Architecture Journal, 2(6), pp. 1077–1086. https://doi.org/10.37253/leader.v2i6.10376
Jelodar, M.B., Raut, P. H., and Saghatforoush, E., 2021. Contractor-Delay Control in Building Projects: Escalation of Strategy from Primary Proactive to Secondary Reactive. Journal of Legal Affairs and Dispute Resolution in Engineering and Construction, 13(2). https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce) la. 1943-4170.0000449
Ji, T., Liu, J.-W., and Li, Q.-F., 2022. Safety risk evaluation of large and complex bridges during construction based on the Delphi-improved FAHP-factor analysis method. Advances in Civil Engineering, 2022, Article ID 5397032. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/5397032
Kaliba, C., Muya, M. and Mumba, K., 2008. Cost escalation and schedule delays in road construction projects in Zambia. International Journal of Project Management, 27(5), pp. 522–531. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2008.07.003
Knight, K. and Fayek, A.R., 2000. A preliminary study of the factors affecting the cost escalation of construction projects. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 27(1), pp. 73–83. https://doi.org/10.1139/l99-057
Lavagetto, F., 1995. Speech articulatory analysis through time delay neural networks. In: Proceedings of the Second New Zealand International Two-Stream Conference on Artificial Neural Networks and Expert Systems. Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE Computer Society Press, pp. 306–309. https://doi.org/10.1109/annes.1995.499495
Mohajeri Borje Ghaleh, R. and Pourrostam, T., 2023. Delays in road construction projects from a risk management perspective. Infrastructures, 6(9), 135. MDPI. https://www.mdpi.com/2412-3811/6/9/135
Mohajeri Borje Ghaleh, R., Pourrostam, T., Mansour Sharifloo, N., Majrouhi Sardroud, J., and Safa, E., 2021. Delays in the road construction projects from risk management perspective. Infrastructures, 6(9), Article 135. https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures6090135
Mohammad, KH, Ali, N.S., and Najm, BM 2021, Assessment of the cost and time impact of variation orders on construction projects in Sulaimani Governorate. Journal of Engineering, 27 (2) pp. 106–125, http://dx.doi.org/10.31026/j.eng.2021.02.08
Mohammed, SR and Jafar, SS. 2011, construction delay analysis using daily windows technique, Journal of Engineering, 17(1), pp. 186–199, http://dx.doi.org/10.31026/j.eng.2011.01.15
Nasser, A.B. and Erzaij, K.R., 2025. Factors affecting the success of road construction projects: The case of Iraq. Journal of Engineering, 31(9), pp. 20–29. https://doi.org/10.31026/j.eng.2025.09.02
Omoregie, A. and Radford, D., 2006. Infrastructure delays and cost escalation: Causes and effects in Nigeria—University of Derby Online Research Archive.
Rezaee Arjroody, A., Hosseini, S.A., Akhbari, M., Safa, E., and Asadpour, J., 2023. Accurate estimation of cost and time utilizing risk analysis and simulation (case study: road construction projects in Iran). International Journal of Construction Management, 24(1), pp. 19–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/15623599.2023.2210476
Romero, A. and Esenarro, D., 2024. Factors affecting contract compliance and execution of public works in the executing unit: Special Project Huallaga Central and Bajo Mayo in Peru, 2022. Buildings, 14(9), Article 2664. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings14092664
Senić, A., Dobrodolac, M. and Stojadinović, Z., 2024. Predicting extension of time and increasing contract price in road infrastructure projects using a Sugeno fuzzy logic model. Mathematics, 12(18), Article 2852. https://doi.org/10.3390/math12182852
Shane, J., Molenaar, K., Anderson, S., and Schexnayder, C., 2009. Construction project cost escalation factors. Journal of Management in Engineering, 25(4), pp. 221–229. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0742-597X(2009)25:4(221
Sharma, V.K., Gupta, P. K., and Khitoliya, R.K., 2020. Analysis of highway construction project time overruns using survey approach. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 46(5), pp. 4353–4367. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-020-04934-4
Stoll, B.L., O’Reilly, J.E., and Bell, L.C., 2006. Methodologies for determining construction contract time and evaluating contract time extensions. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board. (TRB Technical Report)
Thakur, N., 2021. Cost overrun and time delay risk assessment in local road bridge construction using fuzzy inference system. MSc Thesis. Lalitpur, Nepal: Pulchowk Campus
Touran, A. and Lopez, R., 2006. Modeling cost escalation in large infrastructure projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 132(8), pp. 853–860. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2006)132:8(853)
Venkateswaran, C.B. and Murugasan, R., 2017. Time delay and cost overrun of road over bridge (ROB) construction projects in India. Journal of Construction in Developing Countries, 22(Suppl. 1), pp. 79–96. https://doi.org/10.21315/jcdc2017.22.supp1.5
Wang, T., Abdallah, M., Clevenger, C., and Monghasemi, S., 2019. Time–cost–quality trade-off analysis for planning construction projects. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 28(1), pp. 82–100. https://doi.org/10.1108/ecam-12-2017-0271
Welde, M. and Dahl, R.E., 2021. Cost escalation in road construction contracts. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2675(9), pp. 1006–1015. https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981211005462
Zhasmukhambetova, A., Evdorides, H., and Davies, R.J., 2025. Critical risk factors affecting time and cost in highway construction: a global systematic literature review. Future Transportation, 5(4), Article 192. https://doi.org/10.3390/futuretransp5040192
